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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to Lamphun Warriors Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior's home record at Lamphun Warriors Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.60 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Chiangrai United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Chiangrai United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 58% | Chiangrai United 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.88 xG and Chiangrai United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.862 / defence 1.026 | Chiangrai United attack 0.726 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.202. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Lamphun Warrior games / 52 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangrai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Chiangrai United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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