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Poisson rates Port FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Nakhon Pathom welcome Port FC to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nakhon Pathom at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Port FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Pathom 0.80 PPG, Port FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Pathom, 2 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Nakhon Pathom trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Port FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 65% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Port FC 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.796 / defence 1.452 | Port FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.279. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Nakhon Pathom games / 57 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 23% | Draw 22% | Port FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Port FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 80% | Port FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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