Rayong FC 1-4 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Ratchaburi at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at WHA Rayong Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 68% and Ratchaburi 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 64% | Ratchaburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Ratchaburi 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.023 / defence 1.416 | Ratchaburi attack 1.128 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.214. Data: 22 Rayong FC games / 51 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 40% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 38%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 40% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Rayong FC 1.97 / Ratchaburi 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.023 / def 1.416 | Ratchaburi attack 1.128 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Ratchaburi xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Rayong FC 1 - 4 Ratchaburi.
Where is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 40% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Rayong FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rayong FC's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
40%
2.53
22%
4.54
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.91
1.94
Ratchaburi xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
14%
6.95
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.57
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.94 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 5W 7D 10L from 22 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 6L across 22 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 3W 4D 3L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.73 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
0
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 80%, Ratchaburi at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rayong FC and 60% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Rayong FC's games and 60% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rayong FC's matches and 60% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Rayong FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 1-4 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Ratchaburi 1.94 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Rayong FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.42 against Ratchaburi attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 40% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 38%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 64%, Ratchaburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.