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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.25 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 35%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 52%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.92 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights