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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Kanchanaburi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Kanchanaburi 0-1 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.02 xG and Ratchaburi 2.30 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kanchanaburi fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.75 / defence 1.51 against Ratchaburi attack 1.48 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 14% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 64%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 48%, Ratchaburi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights