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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kanchanaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Kanchanaburi 1-3 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 0.87 xG and Buriram United 2.20 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 12% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 66%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 44%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights