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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Rayong FC 4-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Rayong FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 44%, Rayong FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.24 PPG, Rayong FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights