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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.41 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 45%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights