🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Chonburi FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC and Muangthong United finished level at 0-0 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.79 xG and Muangthong United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Muangthong United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Muangthong United attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 20%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 44%, Muangthong United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Muangthong United's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.26 PPG, Muangthong United 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights