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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ayutthaya FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 43%, Ayutthaya FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.19 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights