Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 2D 3L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chiangrai United at 1.60 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Uthai Thani winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (50 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (50 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 44% versus Uthai Thani 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 46% | Uthai Thani 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.80 xG and Uthai Thani 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.972 / defence 0.767 | Uthai Thani attack 1.075 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.201. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Chiangrai United games / 50 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 20%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Uthai Thani 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Chiangrai United 1.80 / Uthai Thani 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.972 / def 0.767 | Uthai Thani attack 1.075 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 55% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.97x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.01
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.79
0.99
Uthai Thani xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
30.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.99 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 14W 12D 24L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 21L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.08 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 8W 4D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.54 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 42%, Uthai Thani 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chiangrai United) and 65% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 27% of games; Uthai Thani in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 54% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 65% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.80 xG and Uthai Thani 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against Uthai Thani attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 20%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 46%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.08 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.