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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Ratchaburi 1.84 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Ratchaburi attack 1.60 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 22% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 51%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 42%, Ratchaburi 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights