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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chiangrai United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Chiangrai United 1-3 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Chonburi FC 0.73 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 30%, Chonburi FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.25 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights