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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 2.47 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.69 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.46, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 17% | Sukhothai FC 7%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 49%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights