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Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.28 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights