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Kanchanaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi beat Ayutthaya FC 0-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Kanchanaburi outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kanchanaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Kanchanaburi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Kanchanaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights