Servette FC 1-3 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Servette FC and FC Thun meet at Stade de Genève in Super League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Servette FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Servette FC have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Thun have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Thun away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC Thun are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC Thun's last 10 away games) — Servette FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Thun in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Servette FC, 2 for FC Thun and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Servette FC 0–1 FC Thun — a FC Thun win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Servette FC — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
FC Thun — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 73% and FC Thun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Servette FC 68% | FC Thun 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Servette FC surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while FC Thun have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.46 xG and FC Thun 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.977 / defence 1.157 | FC Thun attack 1.224 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.547. FC Thun have an above-average attack rating of 1.224, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Data: built from Servette FC's last 55 games and FC Thun's last 22.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 24% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 53%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 4.15 | Draw 4.38 | FC Thun 1.89. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.46 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC Thun's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Servette FC 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Thun 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 24% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Servette FC 1.46 / FC Thun 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.977 / def 1.157 | FC Thun attack 1.224 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
2.19
FC Thun xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Thun FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs FC Thun kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Thun kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Servette FC 1 - 3 FC Thun.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Thun part of?
Servette FC vs FC Thun is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 24% chance of winning, FC Thun a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Servette FC and FC Thun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Servette FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Thun's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.22x) against Servette FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 55 games and FC Thun's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 1-3 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
24%
4.15
23%
4.38
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.65
2.19
FC Thun xG
4.15
24%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
11%
8.94
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
3%
37.08
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs FC Thun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Servette FC and 2.19 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Servette FC come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 7D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, FC Thun sit at 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (16W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Servette FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Servette FC's home form reads 2W 5D 4L across their last 11 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Thun have taken 2.45 points per game from their last 11 away games (9W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Servette FC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FC Thun in 73%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs FC Thun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs FC Thun Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 16W 1D 5L in their last 22 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Servette FC and FC Thun, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Servette FC
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs FC Thun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Thun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 1, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Thun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: FC Thun 2-4 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Servette FC, 73% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Servette FC and 82% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Servette FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Thun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and FC Thun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Servette FC's games and 73% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Servette FC and FC Thun matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Servette FC's matches and 82% of FC Thun's.
Do Servette FC and FC Thun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Servette FC's recent matches and 82% of FC Thun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Servette FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Servette FC 1-3 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.46 xG and FC Thun 2.19 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Thun outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against FC Thun attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 24% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 53%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 68%, FC Thun 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.