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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Basel 1893 defy the odds to beat Lausanne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.96 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 44% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 61%, FC Basel 1893 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights