Lausanne 1-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lausanne have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Lausanne have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Basel 1893 stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Basel 1893 away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.00 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lausanne's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Lausanne, 1 for FC Basel 1893 and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Lausanne 0–0 FC Basel 1893 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 62% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 61% | FC Basel 1893 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.96 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.023 / defence 1.036 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.016 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.523. Data: built from Lausanne's last 59 games and FC Basel 1893's last 59.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 44% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 29%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.28 | Draw 3.75 | FC Basel 1893 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 44% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Lausanne 1.96 / FC Basel 1893 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.023 / def 1.036 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.016 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.60
FC Basel 1893 xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 1 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 44% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.02) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 59 games and FC Basel 1893's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.75
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.56
1.60
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
4%
24.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.60 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 20D 23L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 33W 14D 17L from 64 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 32 home games (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 7D 10L from their last 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.03 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 33W 14D 17L in their last 64 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.56 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 62%, FC Basel 1893 at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Lausanne and 69% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lausanne's games and 69% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Lausanne's matches and 69% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lausanne's recent matches and 84% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Basel 1893 defy the odds to beat Lausanne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.96 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 44% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 61%, FC Basel 1893 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.