Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face BSC Young Boys.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lausanne — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, BSC Young Boys stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Lausanne) versus 1.30 (BSC Young Boys). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Lausanne's last 10 home games and BSC Young Boys's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Jan 2026, ended Lausanne 3–1 BSC Young Boys — a Lausanne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 64% and BSC Young Boys 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 63% | BSC Young Boys 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.06 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.964 / defence 1.088 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.990 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.494. BSC Young Boys's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lausanne's projected output up. Data: built from Lausanne's last 62 games and BSC Young Boys's last 62.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 28%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.16 | Draw 3.97 | BSC Young Boys 3.52. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and BSC Young Boys's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 80% (last 10 home games) | BSC Young Boys 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Lausanne 2.06 / BSC Young Boys 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.964 / def 1.088 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.990 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.61
BSC Young Boys xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 0 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.96x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 62 games and BSC Young Boys's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.97
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.67
1.61
BSC Young Boys xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
4%
27.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.61 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 20D 24L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 29W 16D 22L from 67 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.33 PPG, BSC Young Boys on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 34 home games (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 8W 10D 16L from their last 34 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.76 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 64%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
Lausanne (Home) vs BSC Young Boys (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Current Season
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 29W 16D 22L in their last 67 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Lausanne's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.56 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-0 BSC Young Boys.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 65%, BSC Young Boys 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Lausanne and 62% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Lausanne's games and 62% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lausanne's matches and 62% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lausanne's recent matches and 71% of BSC Young Boys's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 0-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.06 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.61 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 46% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 28%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual BSC Young Boys win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 63%, BSC Young Boys 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.33 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.