Grasshoppers 0-4 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grasshoppers vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Sion travel to Letzigrund Stadion to take on Grasshoppers in Super League (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Grasshoppers have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Grasshoppers have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Sion's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Sion are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Grasshoppers's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Grasshoppers, 4 for FC Sion and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Grasshoppers 0–1 FC Sion — a FC Sion win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grasshoppers 58% versus FC Sion 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 52% | FC Sion 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Grasshoppers surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while FC Sion have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.26 xG and FC Sion 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.838 / defence 1.080 | FC Sion attack 0.919 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.442. Data: built from Grasshoppers's last 64 games and FC Sion's last 64.
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 38%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 3.31 | Draw 3.19 | FC Sion 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grasshoppers's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grasshoppers 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 32 | Venue: Letzigrund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Grasshoppers 1.26 / FC Sion 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.838 / def 1.080 | FC Sion attack 0.919 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Sion xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does Grasshoppers vs FC Sion kick off?
Grasshoppers vs FC Sion kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Letzigrund Stadion.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs FC Sion?
Grasshoppers 0 - 4 FC Sion.
Where is Grasshoppers vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Letzigrund Stadion.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs FC Sion part of?
Grasshoppers vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 32) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 30% chance of winning, FC Sion a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Grasshoppers and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grasshoppers vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grasshoppers's attack rating (0.84) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus Grasshoppers's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grasshoppers's last 64 games and FC Sion's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.19
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.69
1.43
FC Sion xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 1.43 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grasshoppers's recent record stands at 15W 20D 34L from 69 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 22W 24D 23L across 69 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grasshoppers on 0.94 PPG, FC Sion on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grasshoppers have managed 9W 12D 13L from their last 34 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 7W 10D 17L across their last 34 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.32 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
Grasshoppers (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grasshoppers
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 15W 20D 34L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 22W 24D 23L in their last 69 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or FC Sion away?
Grasshoppers's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.15 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2026, when FC Sion won Grasshoppers 0-4 FC Sion.
Grasshoppers's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Grasshoppers
1
Draws
6
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Grasshoppers have won 3, FC Sion have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Grasshoppers 2-5 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grasshoppers 68%, FC Sion 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Grasshoppers) and 50% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grasshoppers and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Grasshoppers's games and 62% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grasshoppers and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Grasshoppers's recent games and 50% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grasshoppers and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Grasshoppers's recent matches and 74% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Sion run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Grasshoppers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat Grasshoppers 0-4 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.26 xG and FC Sion 1.43 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Sion outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 38%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 52%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Sion's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.94 PPG, FC Sion 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.