FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Winterthur vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stadion Schützenwiese to face FC Winterthur in Super League (Relegation Group - 36). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
FC Winterthur's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Winterthur have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lausanne have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lausanne arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) — FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lausanne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, FC Winterthur edge it 5 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended FC Winterthur 1–2 Lausanne — a Lausanne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Winterthur — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Winterthur 58% versus Lausanne 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Winterthur 64% | Lausanne 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 1.34 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.677 / defence 1.344 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. FC Winterthur's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. FC Winterthur's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lausanne's projected output up. Data: built from FC Winterthur's last 66 games and Lausanne's last 66.
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 3.46 | Draw 3.51 | Lausanne 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Winterthur 70% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG FC Winterthur 1.34 / Lausanne 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.677 / def 1.344 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Lausanne xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
FC Winterthur 2 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne part of?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (Relegation Group - 36) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 29% chance of winning, Lausanne a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Winterthur and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Winterthur vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Winterthur's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.86x) against FC Winterthur's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from FC Winterthur's last 66 games and Lausanne's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.51
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
2.99
1.65
Lausanne xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
18.00
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Winterthur vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.65 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Winterthur's recent record stands at 15W 15D 43L from 73 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 28L across 73 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lausanne by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Winterthur heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Winterthur have managed 9W 8D 18L from their last 35 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 8W 12D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.55 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 62%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Winterthur (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Winterthur
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ FC Winterthur vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC Winterthur and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 15W 15D 43L in their last 73 games (0.82 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 25W 20D 28L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Lausanne away?
Lausanne's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Winterthur won Lausanne 2-5 FC Winterthur on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Winterthur have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Winterthur
1
Draws
3
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Winterthur vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Winterthur have won 6, Lausanne have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
FC Winterthur have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Winterthur 54%, Lausanne 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (FC Winterthur) and 60% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Winterthur have failed to score in 26% of games; Lausanne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Winterthur and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Winterthur's games and 60% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Winterthur and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of FC Winterthur's matches and 60% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Winterthur and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of FC Winterthur's recent matches and 71% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Winterthur defy the odds to beat Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Relegation Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.34 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 43%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Winterthur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 64%, Lausanne 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.