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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 28, as FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.74 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.88 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC ST. Gallen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights