FC Thun 2-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Thun at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC ST. Gallen travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 March 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.40 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stockhorn Arena this season.
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Thun register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC ST. Gallen in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Thun have won 1, FC ST. Gallen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Thun trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 70% and FC ST. Gallen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 78% | FC ST. Gallen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.74 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.291 / defence 0.875 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.199 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.476. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC ST. Gallen's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 FC Thun games / 60 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 60% | FC ST. Gallen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Thun 1.74 / FC ST. Gallen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.291 / def 0.875 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.199 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 5 March 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun 2 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 40% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (2 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Thun (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.29) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.56
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.29
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.55 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 27 games, going 21W 1D 5L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (15W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 9W 1D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.92 points per game from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.96 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 21W 1D 5L in their last 27 games (2.37 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 15W 5D 7L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Thun's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.15 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Thun's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 69%, FC ST. Gallen at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Thun and 69% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Thun's games and 85% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Thun's matches and 69% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 28, as FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.74 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.88 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC ST. Gallen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.