FC Thun 2-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC ST. Gallen travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun in Super League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Thun have gone 10W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, FC Thun have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.40 lags behind their overall 3.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
FC ST. Gallen — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Thun's games and 80% of FC ST. Gallen's (from FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC Thun have won 1, FC ST. Gallen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended FC Thun 0–2 FC ST. Gallen — a FC ST. Gallen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Thun trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 70% and FC ST. Gallen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 78% | FC ST. Gallen 70%). Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while FC Thun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.74 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.291 / defence 0.875 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.199 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.476. FC Thun carry an above-average attack rating of 1.291 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC ST. Gallen bring a tight defence (rating 0.790, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Thun's projected output down. Data: built from FC Thun's last 27 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 60.
Result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.51 | Draw 3.56 | FC ST. Gallen 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Thun 60% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG FC Thun 1.74 / FC ST. Gallen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.291 / def 0.875 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.199 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 5 March 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun 2 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 40% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.29) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Thun's last 27 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.56
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.29
1.55
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.55 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 27 games, going 21W 1D 5L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (15W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 9W 1D 3L across their last 13 home games, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.92 points per game from their last 13 away games (7W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.96 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 70%.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Thun (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Thun
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 21W 1D 5L in their last 27 games (2.37 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 15W 5D 7L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Thun's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.15 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Thun's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Thun have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 69%, FC ST. Gallen at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Thun and 69% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Thun's games and 85% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Thun's matches and 69% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC Thun's recent matches and 77% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 28, as FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.74 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.88 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC ST. Gallen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.