FC Thun 2-1 FC Luzern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Luzern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Thun and FC Luzern meet at Stockhorn Arena in Super League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Thun at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Luzern (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in FC Thun's favour (2.70 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC Luzern's last 10 away games) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Luzern in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Thun, 0 for FC Luzern and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended FC Thun 4–1 FC Luzern — a FC Thun win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Luzern half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 69% and FC Luzern 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 77% | FC Luzern 77%). Note also that FC Luzern surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while FC Thun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.90 xG and FC Luzern 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.249 / defence 0.869 | FC Luzern attack 1.103 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.551. Data: built from FC Thun's last 26 games and FC Luzern's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC Thun 45% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.21 | Draw 3.75 | FC Luzern 3.57. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC Luzern's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Thun 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Luzern 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Luzern | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 45% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG FC Thun 1.90 / FC Luzern 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.249 / def 0.869 | FC Luzern attack 1.103 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.49
FC Luzern xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Thun vs FC Luzern FAQs
What time does FC Thun vs FC Luzern kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Luzern kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
FC Thun 2 - 1 FC Luzern.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Luzern being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Luzern part of?
FC Thun vs FC Luzern is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 45% chance of winning, FC Luzern a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Thun and FC Luzern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Thun vs FC Luzern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 1.25x the league average against FC Luzern's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Luzern's attack (1.10x) against FC Thun's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from FC Thun's last 26 games and FC Luzern's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.75
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.39
1.49
FC Luzern xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
4%
23.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Thun vs FC Luzern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Luzern expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.49 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, FC Thun have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 20W 1D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Luzern's form line: 8W 9D 9L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Luzern.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Thun have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 13 home games (9W 1D 3L).
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 5W 4D 4L from their last 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Luzern are on 2.00 scored and 1.88 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Luzern in 77%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Luzern
Blended
FC Thun (Home) vs FC Luzern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Thun
Blended
FC Luzern
Blended
❓ FC Thun vs FC Luzern Form FAQs
What form are FC Thun and FC Luzern in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 20W 1D 5L in their last 26 games (2.35 PPG), while FC Luzern have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Luzern away?
FC Thun's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.15 PPG; FC Luzern away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between FC Thun and FC Luzern, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Thun have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won FC Thun 4-1 FC Luzern on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Luzern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
FC Thun
0
Draws
0
FC Luzern
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Thun vs FC Luzern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Luzern?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Thun have won 4, FC Luzern have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Luzern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: FC Luzern 1-3 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Luzern?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Luzern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for FC Thun, 62% for FC Luzern — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Thun and 62% for FC Luzern. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Luzern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Thun vs FC Luzern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Thun and FC Luzern matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Thun's games and 62% of FC Luzern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Thun and FC Luzern matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Thun's matches and 62% of FC Luzern's.
Do FC Thun and FC Luzern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC Thun's recent matches and 77% of FC Luzern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Luzern 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Luzern 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.90 xG and FC Luzern 1.49 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 0.87 against FC Luzern attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 45% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 28%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 77%, FC Luzern 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Luzern's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.