FC ST. Gallen 2-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to kybunpark in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC ST. Gallen's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — last 5 games: 1W 1D 3L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 5 games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Lausanne trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 80% and Lausanne 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 40% | Lausanne 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.136 / defence 0.948 | Lausanne attack 0.933 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.393. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 41 games and Lausanne's last 5.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 22%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.95 | Draw 3.70 | Lausanne 4.60. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 5 games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 100% (last 5 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.93 / Lausanne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.136 / def 0.948 | Lausanne attack 0.933 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 51% chance of winning, Lausanne a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.14x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 41 games and Lausanne's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.70
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.16
1.23
Lausanne xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
3%
31.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.23 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Lausanne in 100%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 80%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FC ST. Gallen and 80% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 80% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 80% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 2-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.23 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 22%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 40%, Lausanne 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. FC ST. Gallen scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.