Lausanne 0-0 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Zurich at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome FC Zurich to Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 6 games, Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 4L — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lausanne's home record over their last 3 home games: 0W 1D 2L (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Zurich stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Zurich's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. FC Zurich's 1.90 PPG return is 1.23 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Lausanne in-play tendencies (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
FC Zurich in-play tendencies (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 100% and FC Zurich 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 83% | FC Zurich 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.20 xG and FC Zurich 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.746 / defence 1.478 | FC Zurich attack 1.158 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.386. Lausanne's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Lausanne's defence rating of 1.478 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Zurich's projected output up. Data: built from Lausanne's last 6 games and FC Zurich's last 42.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 16% | Draw 22% | FC Zurich 62%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 6.06 | Draw 4.62 | FC Zurich 1.62. The model has a clear lean to FC Zurich (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Zurich are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 3 home games and FC Zurich's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 100% (last 3 home games) | FC Zurich 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 16% | Draw 22% | FC Zurich 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Lausanne 1.20 / FC Zurich 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.746 / def 1.478 | FC Zurich attack 1.158 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.37
FC Zurich xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Zurich FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Zurich kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Lausanne 0 - 0 FC Zurich.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Zurich part of?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 16% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lausanne and FC Zurich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.75) and FC Zurich's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 6 games and FC Zurich's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
16%
6.06
22%
4.62
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.57
2.37
FC Zurich xG
6.06
16%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
9%
10.71
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
2%
64.90
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Zurich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.37 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Zurich sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
FC Zurich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across their last 3 home games, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Zurich have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 3 away games (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Zurich in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Zurich
Early Season
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Zurich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Zurich
Early Season
❓ Lausanne vs FC Zurich Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.33 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lausanne or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Lausanne won Lausanne 3-0 FC Zurich.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lausanne
2
Draws
3
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Zurich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 5, FC Zurich have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Zurich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Lausanne 2-3 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 100%, FC Zurich at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Zurich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Zurich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 67% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Zurich matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Zurich's.
Do Lausanne and FC Zurich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lausanne's recent matches and 100% of FC Zurich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lausanne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 7, as Lausanne and FC Zurich drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.20 xG and FC Zurich 2.37 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Zurich landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.75 / defence 1.48 against FC Zurich attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 16% | Draw 22% | FC Zurich 62%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 83%, FC Zurich 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.