FC Winterthur 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Winterthur at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Winterthur face Yverdon Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Yverdon Sport travel to Stadion Schützenwiese to take on FC Winterthur in Super League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Winterthur — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Winterthur's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 5 games, Yverdon Sport have recorded 2W 1D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Winterthur 1.00 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Winterthur's games and 67% of Yverdon Sport's (from FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 3 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Winterthur in-play tendencies (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Winterthur 80% and Yverdon Sport 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Winterthur 80% | Yverdon Sport 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 2.12 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.842 / defence 0.956 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.801 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.374. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.415 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Winterthur's projected output up. Data: built from FC Winterthur's last 41 games and Yverdon Sport's last 5.
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 60% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 1.68 | Draw 4.03 | Yverdon Sport 6.40. The model has a clear lean to FC Winterthur (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Winterthur are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 3 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Winterthur 60% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 67% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 60% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG FC Winterthur 2.12 / Yverdon Sport 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.842 / def 0.956 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.801 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: FC Winterthur (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Yverdon Sport xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Winterthur 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 60% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Winterthur the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Winterthur's attack rating (0.84) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Winterthur's last 41 games and Yverdon Sport's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Winterthur Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.03
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
3.17
1.05
Yverdon Sport xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
53.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.05 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Winterthur come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.40 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC Winterthur are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 80%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
FC Winterthur (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Winterthur
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won Yverdon Sport 3-0 FC Winterthur.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Winterthur
4
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Winterthur have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Winterthur at 80%, Yverdon Sport at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Winterthur and 80% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Winterthur's games and 80% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Winterthur's matches and 80% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of FC Winterthur's recent matches and 100% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 6, as FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 2.12 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.05 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Winterthur fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.80 / defence 1.42, drawn from 41/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 60% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 16%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 80%, Yverdon Sport 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.40 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Winterthur managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.