FC ST. Gallen 0-0 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC ST. Gallen face Grasshoppers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grasshoppers make the trip to Kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, FC ST. Gallen have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grasshoppers's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grasshoppers's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC ST. Gallen. A 1.20 PPG lead over Grasshoppers (1.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Grasshoppers managing 1 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended FC ST. Gallen 2–1 Grasshoppers — a FC ST. Gallen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Grasshoppers — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 66% and Grasshoppers 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 56% | Grasshoppers 51%). Note also that Grasshoppers surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while FC ST. Gallen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.05 xG and Grasshoppers 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.015 / defence 1.051 | Grasshoppers attack 0.978 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.507. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 56 games and Grasshoppers's last 57.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.09 | Draw 4.10 | Grasshoppers 3.61. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.05 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and Grasshoppers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 60% (last 10 home games) | Grasshoppers 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.05 / Grasshoppers 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.015 / def 1.051 | Grasshoppers attack 0.978 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Grasshoppers xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 0 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 48% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.01) and Grasshoppers's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grasshoppers's attack (0.98x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 56 games and Grasshoppers's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.55
Grasshoppers xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.55 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 16D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Grasshoppers sit at 1.00 PPG from 61 outings (14W 19D 28L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Grasshoppers have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs Grasshoppers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 26W 16D 19L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 14W 19D 28L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Grasshoppers away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.80 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 5-0 Grasshoppers on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 6, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Grasshoppers 2-0 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 63%, Grasshoppers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (FC ST. Gallen) and 47% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 53% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 47% of Grasshoppers's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 67% of Grasshoppers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC ST. Gallen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, as FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.05 xG and Grasshoppers 1.55 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Grasshoppers landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Grasshoppers attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 56%, Grasshoppers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.