FC Sion 2-0 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Sion and FC Thun meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (Championship Group - 36). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
FC Sion (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Sion's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC Thun have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Thun away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC Sion's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Thun's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Thun have the stronger record — 3 wins to FC Sion's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2026, ended FC Sion 0–1 FC Thun — a FC Thun win.
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 49% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC Thun 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.34 xG and FC Thun 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.923 / defence 0.658 | FC Thun attack 1.082 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. FC Sion have a tight defence (rating 0.658), which is pulling FC Thun's projected output down. Data: built from FC Sion's last 66 games and FC Thun's last 33.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 42% | Draw 33% | FC Thun 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.41 | Draw 3.06 | FC Thun 3.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Sion 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Thun 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 36 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 42% | Draw 33% | FC Thun 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Sion 1.34 / FC Thun 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.923 / def 0.658 | FC Thun attack 1.082 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Thun xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Thun FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Thun kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
FC Sion 2 - 0 FC Thun.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Thun part of?
FC Sion vs FC Thun is a Super League fixture (Championship Group - 36) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 42% chance of winning, FC Thun a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and FC Thun will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Sion vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.92) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.08x) against FC Sion's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 66 games and FC Thun's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
42%
2.41
33%
3.06
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
FC Thun xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs FC Thun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.02 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 15W 13D 7L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Thun's form line: 24W 2D 9L from 35 games, 2.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 17 home games (8W 6D 3L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 12W 0D 5L from their last 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.17 scored and 1.17 conceded. FC Thun's attacking output running into FC Sion's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 71%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
FC Sion (Home) vs FC Thun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
❓ FC Sion vs FC Thun Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 15W 13D 7L in their last 35 games (1.66 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 24W 2D 9L in their last 35 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.12 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Thun been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Thun in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Sion have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Sion
0
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs FC Thun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Thun?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 2, FC Thun have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Thun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 35%, FC Thun 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FC Sion) and 82% (FC Thun). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; FC Sion have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Thun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and FC Thun matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of FC Sion's recent matches and 71% of FC Thun's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Sion and FC Thun matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of FC Sion's matches and 82% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Sion and FC Thun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Sion's recent matches and 76% of FC Thun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Thun 2-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Championship Group - 36, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.34 xG and FC Thun 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Thun landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 0.66 against FC Thun attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 42% | Draw 33% | FC Thun 26%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Thun 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Thun's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.