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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC Basel 1893 host FC Thun at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Championship Group - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Thun away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. FC Thun's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Basel 1893's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 have won 1, FC Thun 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with FC Thun winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

FC Basel 1893 trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

FC Thun trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 62% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 59% | FC Thun 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG and FC Thun 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.970 / defence 0.882 | FC Thun attack 1.089 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. Data: 66 FC Basel 1893 games / 33 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | FC Thun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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