BSC Young Boys 3-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 meet at Stadion Wankdorf in Super League, Championship Group - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
BSC Young Boys's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for BSC Young Boys, 1.60 for FC Basel 1893 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — BSC Young Boys register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Basel 1893 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for BSC Young Boys, 2 for FC Basel 1893 and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 64% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 64% | FC Basel 1893 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.15 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.151 / defence 0.947 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.989 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. Data: 66 BSC Young Boys games / 66 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | FC Basel 1893 4.55. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 70% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 36 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG BSC Young Boys 2.15 / FC Basel 1893 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.151 / def 0.947 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.989 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 is a Championship Group - 36 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 54% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
Record (8 meetings): BSC Young Boys 4W | Draws 2 | FC Basel 1893 2W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.15) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (0.99x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.15
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.49
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
3%
39.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.34 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 73 games, going 30W 19D 24L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.77 PPG from 73 outings (38W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.77 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 21W 8D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.61 points per game from 36 outings (17W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.99 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 73 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 30W 19D 24L in their last 73 games (1.49 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 38W 15D 20L in their last 73 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 1.97 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won 5-1 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
3
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for BSC Young Boys, 67% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for BSC Young Boys and 69% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of BSC Young Boys's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 69% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.15 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 64%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.49 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.