FC Sion 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as FC Sion take on FC ST. Gallen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Sion have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Sion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC ST. Gallen stand at 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.80 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Sion, 3 for FC ST. Gallen and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2025, ended FC Sion 1–3 FC ST. Gallen — a FC ST. Gallen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and FC ST. Gallen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC ST. Gallen 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Sion surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while FC ST. Gallen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while FC Sion recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.15 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.834 / defence 0.651 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.214 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.468. FC ST. Gallen bring a tight defence (rating 0.797, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Sion's projected output down. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack rating of 1.214, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. FC Sion have a tight defence (rating 0.651), which is pulling FC ST. Gallen's projected output down. Data: built from FC Sion's last 63 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 63.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.08 | Draw 2.89 | FC ST. Gallen 3.04. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Sion 50% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Sion 1.15 / FC ST. Gallen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.834 / def 0.651 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.214 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC ST. Gallen xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 31) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 32% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 63 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
35%
2.89
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.16 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 23D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.57 PPG from 68 outings (29W 20D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.31 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 15W 13D 6L across their last 34 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 34 away games (11W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.63 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 66%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Sion (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 22W 23D 23L in their last 68 games (1.31 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 29W 20D 19L in their last 68 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.71 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Sion have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 FC Sion.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Sion
4
Draws
3
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 56%, FC ST. Gallen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Sion) and 50% (FC ST. Gallen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Sion's games and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Sion's recent games and 50% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Sion's recent matches and 74% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.15 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 0.65 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.21 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.31 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.