FC Sion 2-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Basel 1893 — this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Thursday 12 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Sion — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC Sion have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Basel 1893 away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.70 (FC Basel 1893). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, FC Basel 1893 have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for FC Sion.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Jan 2026, ended FC Sion 1–1 FC Basel 1893 — a draw.
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC Basel 1893 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.25 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.764 / defence 0.651 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.130 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.526. FC Sion's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. FC Sion have a tight defence (rating 0.651), which is pulling FC Basel 1893's projected output down. Data: built from FC Sion's last 56 games and FC Basel 1893's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.73 | Draw 3.05 | FC Basel 1893 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Sion 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FC Sion 1.25 / FC Basel 1893 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.764 / def 0.651 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.130 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Basel 1893 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 2 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 37% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 56 games and FC Basel 1893's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.05
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.37
1.12
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.12 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 21D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.84 PPG from 61 outings (33W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 12W 12D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.73 points per game from their last 30 away games (15W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.08 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 19W 21D 21L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 33W 13D 15L in their last 61 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.73 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won FC Basel 1893 4-1 FC Sion.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Sion
2
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 3, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 57%, FC Basel 1893 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC Sion) and 70% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Sion's games and 70% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Sion's matches and 70% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Sion's recent matches and 83% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Basel 1893 2-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.25 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.12 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.76 / defence 0.65 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 37% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 31%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.