FC Basel 1893 1-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 26 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at St. Jakob-Park this season.
Lausanne — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Basel 1893, 1 for Lausanne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 52% and Lausanne 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 56% | Lausanne 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.50 xG and Lausanne 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.793 / defence 0.841 | Lausanne attack 0.845 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.182. FC Basel 1893's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing FC Basel 1893's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 FC Basel 1893 games / 25 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 4.76. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Basel 1893 30% | Lausanne 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.50 / Lausanne 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.793 / def 0.841 | Lausanne attack 0.845 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lausanne xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 53% chance of winning, Lausanne a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Record (1 meetings): FC Basel 1893 0W | Draws 0 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.82
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.34
0.84
Lausanne xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.84 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 9W 4D 12L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 11L across 25 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.24 PPG, Lausanne on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.32 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 72%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 9W 4D 12L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.42 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lausanne 1-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 42%, Lausanne 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for FC Basel 1893 and 83% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of FC Basel 1893's games and 83% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 83% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.50 xG and Lausanne 0.84 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 61/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 21%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 56%, Lausanne 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.24 PPG, Lausanne 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.