Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grasshoppers at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grasshoppers make the trip to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grasshoppers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Grasshoppers are 1.00 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in recent Super League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–5 with Grasshoppers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Grasshoppers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63% versus Grasshoppers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63% | Grasshoppers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.89 xG and Grasshoppers 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.702 / defence 1.572 | Grasshoppers attack 0.696 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.198. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 61 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 46%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Grasshoppers 2.17. Grasshoppers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grasshoppers are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 80% | Grasshoppers 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.89 / Grasshoppers 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.702 / def 1.572 | Grasshoppers attack 0.696 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Grasshoppers xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 25% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1W | Draws 0 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Grasshoppers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.70x the league average against Grasshoppers's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grasshoppers's attack (0.70x) against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence (1.57x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
25%
3.96
28%
3.53
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
Grasshoppers xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.31 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 6D 16L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grasshoppers sit at 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 1.07 for Grasshoppers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Grasshoppers have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grasshoppers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 5W 6D 16L in their last 27 games (0.78 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or Grasshoppers away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 0.85 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won 5-2 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Grasshoppers 3-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 77%, Grasshoppers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) and 46% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 46% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 46% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Grasshoppers finished level at 1-1 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.89 xG and Grasshoppers 1.31 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.70 / defence 1.57 against Grasshoppers attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 25% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 46%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%, Grasshoppers 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.78 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.