Servette FC 3-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stade de Genève this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Servette FC are significantly better at Stade de Genève than their overall form suggests.
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Servette FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Lausanne (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Servette FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lausanne in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Servette FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 62% and Lausanne 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 46% | Lausanne 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.31 xG and Lausanne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.253 / defence 0.844 | Lausanne attack 0.940 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.182. Servette FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Servette FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Servette FC games / 26 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Lausanne 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 70% | Lausanne 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Servette FC 2.31 / Lausanne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.253 / def 0.844 | Lausanne attack 0.940 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs Lausanne kick off?
Servette FC vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Servette FC 3 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is Servette FC vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Lausanne part of?
Servette FC vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 68% chance of winning, Lausanne a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Servette FC and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Lausanne?
Record (1 meetings): Servette FC 0W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are Servette FC and Lausanne in?
Servette FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.25) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.94x) against Servette FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.51
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.24
0.94
Lausanne xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
72.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Servette FC and 0.94 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 14W 8D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne's form line: 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Servette FC are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L).
On the road, Lausanne have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.35 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lausanne in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 14W 8D 4L in their last 26 games (1.92 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Lausanne away?
Servette FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Servette FC or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Servette FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lausanne in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Servette FC
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and Lausanne?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Servette FC, 85% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Servette FC and 85% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Servette FC's games and 85% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Servette FC's matches and 85% of Lausanne's.
Do Servette FC and Lausanne tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Lausanne 3-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.31 xG and Lausanne 0.94 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 46%, Lausanne 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.