FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Thun at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 0.70 (FC Thun). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, FC Thun 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Thun trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 58% and FC Thun 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 60% | FC Thun 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.16 xG and FC Thun 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.832 / defence 0.873 | FC Thun attack 1.145 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.658. Data: 35 FC Basel 1893 games / 35 FC Thun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 27% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 49%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | FC Thun 2.04. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 27% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.16 / FC Thun 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.832 / def 0.873 | FC Thun attack 1.145 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.658 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Thun xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
FC Basel 1893 4 - 2 FC Thun.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 27% chance of winning, FC Thun a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
Record (4 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 2W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.83) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
27%
3.76
24%
4.11
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.81
1.66
FC Thun xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
19.67
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.66 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 17W 8D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun's form line: 25W 3D 12L from 40 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Basel 1893.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 13W 1D 6L from 20 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.08 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 17W 8D 15L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 25W 3D 12L in their last 40 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Basel 1893 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
0
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC Thun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 60%, FC Thun at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Basel 1893 and 75% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Basel 1893's games and 70% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 75% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 4-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.16 xG and FC Thun 1.66 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against FC Thun attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 27% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 49%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 60%, FC Thun 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with FC Basel 1893 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.