FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Basel 1893, 3 for Lausanne and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 59% and Lausanne 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 62% | Lausanne 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.80 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.997 / defence 0.946 | Lausanne attack 0.933 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.451. Data: 34 FC Basel 1893 games / 34 Lausanne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 3.85. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 80% | Lausanne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.80 / Lausanne 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.997 / def 0.946 | Lausanne attack 0.933 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lausanne xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 48% chance of winning, Lausanne a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Record (9 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 4 | Lausanne 3W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.28
Lausanne xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
23.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.28 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 17W 8D 14L from 39 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 18L across 39 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Basel 1893 by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.38 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.58 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 63%, Lausanne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC Basel 1893 and 68% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Basel 1893's games and 63% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 68% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 0-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.80 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, Lausanne 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.