FC Sion 3-2 FC Vaduz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Sion at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Vaduz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Vaduz make the trip to Stade de Tourbillon to face FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stade de Tourbillon — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon.
FC Vaduz's overall Super League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 2.10 PPG lead over FC Vaduz (2.10 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 2.14 xG and FC Vaduz 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.125 / defence 0.691 | FC Vaduz attack 0.814 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.658. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 FC Sion games / 2 FC Vaduz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 65% | Draw 20% | FC Vaduz 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | FC Vaduz 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 65% | Draw 20% | FC Vaduz 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Sion 2.14 / FC Vaduz 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.125 / def 0.691 | FC Vaduz attack 0.814 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.658 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Vaduz xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Vaduz kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Vaduz kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Vaduz?
FC Sion 3 - 2 FC Vaduz.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Vaduz part of?
FC Sion vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 65% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Sion and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Vaduz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Vaduz in?
FC Sion (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. FC Vaduz (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 1.12x the league average against FC Vaduz's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.81x) against FC Sion's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (35/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.09
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.07
0.93
FC Vaduz xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
55.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.93 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Vaduz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Sion come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Vaduz sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of FC Vaduz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz in 100%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
FC Vaduz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have FC Sion or FC Vaduz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Vaduz in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Sion
0
Draws
0
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 1, FC Vaduz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Sion 3-2 FC Vaduz.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Vaduz?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Sion's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Sion's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do FC Sion and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Vaduz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Vaduz 3-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.14 xG and FC Vaduz 0.93 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Vaduz outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.12 / defence 0.69 against FC Vaduz attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 65% | Draw 20% | FC Vaduz 15%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 100%, FC Vaduz 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.