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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Thun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 3-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Group - 35, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG and FC Thun 1.37 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against FC Thun attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 34%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 59%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with FC Basel 1893 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights