🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.15 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 64%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.49 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights