BSC Young Boys 3-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BSC Young Boys face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 meet at Stadion Wankdorf in Super League (Championship Group - 36). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
BSC Young Boys's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BSC Young Boys at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for BSC Young Boys, 1.60 for FC Basel 1893 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of BSC Young Boys's games and 70% of FC Basel 1893's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for BSC Young Boys, 2 for FC Basel 1893 and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC Basel 1893 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 34 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 64% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 64% | FC Basel 1893 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.15 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.151 / defence 0.947 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.989 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 66 games and FC Basel 1893's last 66.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.84 | Draw 4.15 | FC Basel 1893 4.63. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 36 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG BSC Young Boys 2.15 / FC Basel 1893 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.151 / def 0.947 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.989 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (Championship Group - 36) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 54% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.15) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (0.99x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 66 games and FC Basel 1893's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.15
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.49
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
3%
39.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.34 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 73 games, going 30W 19D 24L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.77 PPG from 73 outings (38W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.77 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 21W 8D 7L across their last 36 home games, a 1.97 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 36 away games (17W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.99 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 30W 19D 24L in their last 73 games (1.49 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 38W 15D 20L in their last 73 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 1.97 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893, the earliest from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 5-1 FC Basel 1893 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
3
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for BSC Young Boys, 67% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for BSC Young Boys and 69% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of BSC Young Boys's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 69% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 86% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.15 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 22%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 64%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.49 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.