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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Umeå FC 4-0 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 xG and Umeå FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Umeå FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Umeå FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 53% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 21%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights