Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Degerfors IF to Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Degerfors IF's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 60% of Degerfors IF's (from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Degerfors IF and 6 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2024, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Degerfors IF — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 56% versus Degerfors IF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG and Degerfors IF 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.206 | Degerfors IF attack 1.158 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.179. Degerfors IF bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output down. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Degerfors IF's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 27 games and Degerfors IF's last 27.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 53%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.85 | Draw 3.77 | Degerfors IF 1.89. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 28 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 / Degerfors IF 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.846 / def 1.206 | Degerfors IF attack 1.158 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 27 games and Degerfors IF's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
21%
4.85
27%
3.77
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.65
Degerfors IF xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
25.16
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.65 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 14D 32L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.39 PPG from 57 outings (22W 13D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Degerfors IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 8D 15L across their last 28 home games, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 11W 14D 32L in their last 57 games (0.82 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 22W 13D 22L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Degerfors IF away?
Degerfors IF's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.82 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 5 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
7
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2024: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, Degerfors IF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 54% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 61% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 54% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 79% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG and Degerfors IF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against Degerfors IF attack 1.16 / defence 0.78, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 21% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 53%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Degerfors IF arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.