Sandviken 2-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helsingborg make the trip to Arena Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Jernvallen, Sandviken have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sandviken are significantly better at Arena Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Helsingborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sandviken against 1.70 for Helsingborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandviken lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 52% versus Helsingborg 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 63% | Helsingborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.61 xG and Helsingborg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.211 / defence 0.929 | Helsingborg attack 1.086 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.194. Data: 27 Sandviken games / 57 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 3.57. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sandviken 50% | Helsingborg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandviken 1.61 / Helsingborg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.211 / def 0.929 | Helsingborg attack 1.086 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Helsingborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Helsingborg kick off?
Sandviken vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Sandviken 2 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is Sandviken vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Helsingborg part of?
Sandviken vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 46% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandviken and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Sandviken and Helsingborg in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.21) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.09x) against Sandviken's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.76
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.81
1.20
Helsingborg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.20 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 12W 6D 9L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 13W 7D 7L from 27 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Sandviken against 1.70 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (9W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 8W 1D 4L from 13 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.37 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Helsingborg away?
Sandviken's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.15 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sandviken
2
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Helsingborg?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, Helsingborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Sandviken 4-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Helsingborg?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 46%, Helsingborg 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sandviken and 69% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helsingborg in 46%; Helsingborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sandviken's recent matches and 31% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sandviken's matches and 69% of Helsingborg's.
Do Sandviken and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken and Helsingborg finished level at 2-2 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.61 xG and Helsingborg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Helsingborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 46% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 28%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, Helsingborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.56 PPG, Helsingborg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandviken (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.