Trelleborg 1-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gefle IF make the trip to Vångavallen to face Trelleborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gefle IF (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Trelleborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Gefle IF (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trelleborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gefle IF — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 53% versus Gefle IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 51% | Gefle IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.74 xG and Gefle IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.901 / defence 0.996 | Gefle IF attack 0.848 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.192. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Trelleborg games / 57 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Gefle IF 4.76. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 60% | Gefle IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Trelleborg 1.74 / Gefle IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.901 / def 0.996 | Gefle IF attack 0.848 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gefle IF xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Gefle IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Gefle IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 54% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trelleborg and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 2 | Gefle IF 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Gefle IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.85x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.94
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Gefle IF xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
27.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.01 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 15D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF's form line: 16W 18D 23L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.16 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 4W 9D 15L from 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 16W 18D 23L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Gefle IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.54 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
2
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Gefle IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when Trelleborg 1-0 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 50%, Gefle IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Trelleborg) and 54% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gefle IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Trelleborg's recent games and 54% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Gefle IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Gefle IF 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.74 xG and Gefle IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gefle IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Gefle IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.35, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 54% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 21%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 51%, Gefle IF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.32 PPG, Gefle IF 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.