Utsikten 3-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Utsikten face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Utsikten versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Utsikten have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Utsikten have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Utsikten against 1.10 for Landskrona BoIS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Utsikten 0–1 Landskrona BoIS — a Landskrona BoIS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.168 / defence 1.060 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Data: built from Utsikten's last 59 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 59.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.34 | Draw 3.77 | Landskrona BoIS 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Utsikten's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utsikten 50% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 30 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Utsikten 1.56 / Landskrona BoIS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.168 / def 1.060 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten 3 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 43% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.03x) against Utsikten's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 59 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.77
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.85
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.29 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 24W 16D 19L from 59 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 21L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Utsikten against 1.49 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 15W 7D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.46 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 21L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.79 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won Utsikten 5-1 Landskrona BoIS on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utsikten
1
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 59%, Landskrona BoIS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Utsikten and 62% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Utsikten's games and 59% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Utsikten's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Utsikten's recent matches and 72% of Landskrona BoIS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.17 / defence 1.06 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.49 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.