Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS host IFK Varnamo at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Allsvenskan, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Landskrona BoIS haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, IFK Varnamo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 63% | IFK Varnamo 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.847 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.164. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 0 Landskrona BoIS games / 60 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 28% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Varnamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 70% | IFK Varnamo 40%.

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